The North Carolina’ousing markets have grown quickly in recent years. However, it may be shifting toward steadier and more sustainable conditions, according to new projections from Realtor.com. The company’s 2026 Housing Forecast ranks the 100 largest U.S. metro areas by expected housing market performance and shows that several major North Carolina cities, such as Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham, are expected to drop in the rankings compared to last year.
Although a lower ranking might seem negative at first, housing experts say the data suggest the market is cooling in a way that could help both buyers and sellers after years of tough competition, fast price increases, and unpredictable conditions.
Ranking Changes Reflect Moderating Growth
In the 2026 forecast, Charlotte is projected to fall from 14th place in 2025 to 70th in 2026. Raleigh is expected to drop from 72nd to 95th, while Durham moves from 13th to 41st. The rankings are designed to measure relative growth potential and market momentum rather than overall desirability or long-term strength.
“These rankings aren’t saying that these cities are suddenly bad markets,” said Andy Griesinger, an agent with eXp Realty. “They’re really highlighting where the most dramatic growth is expected to happen next. When a market drops in the rankings, it often means it’s moving toward a more balanced and predictable environment.”
According to Griesinger, that kind of moderation can bring welcome relief after years of sharp price increases and bidding wars that made homeownership difficult for many residents.
Population Growth Continues to Drive Demand
Despite the projected ranking declines, North Carolina’s long-term growth story remains firmly intact. Data from the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management indicate that the state’s population is expected to continue expanding for decades. Officials project that North Carolina’s population will reach approximately 11.7 million residents by 2030 and 15.4 million by 2060, an increase of roughly 3.7 million people over the coming decades.
That population growth continues to underpin housing demand, particularly in major employment hubs like Charlotte and the Triangle region. In Charlotte, the influx of new residents from higher-cost states has been especially pronounced.
Cyrus Mojdehi, a homebuilder who relocated from New York several years ago, said the city’s appeal remains strong even as the housing market cools slightly.
“There’s a lot of young people moving here, and the city is very welcoming,” Mojdehi said. “It’s clean, it’s growing, and there’s still opportunity here that you just don’t see in many other major metros.”
Builders Focus on Affordability
Mojdehi said population growth has intensified the need for attainable housing, pushing builders to rethink design, lot sizes, and construction methods to keep prices within reach.
“One of our main goals is building the most affordable new home we can bring to market,” he said. “In other cities, you either don’t have available land, or the land is so expensive that it’s impossible to make the numbers work. Here, you still have demand, land availability, and a cost structure that allows for new construction at more accessible price points.”
That focus on affordability could become increasingly important as markets stabilize. With fewer dramatic price spikes, buyers may have more leverage, and builders may find greater success offering entry-level and mid-priced homes rather than luxury-focused projects.
What Lower Rankings May Mean for Buyers and Sellers
Realtor.com’s forecast rankings are based on factors such as expected home sales, price growth, and economic trends. Markets that surged during the pandemic-era housing boom often dominated the rankings in recent years, but many are now transitioning into a slower-growth phase.
For buyers, that shift could translate into more inventory choices, less competition, and fewer situations where homes sell far above asking price. For sellers, it may mean homes take slightly longer to sell, but transactions could become more predictable and less prone to sudden swings.
“When things are steady and consistent, it builds confidence,” Griesinger said. “Buyers feel less pressure to rush into decisions, and sellers can price homes more realistically. That kind of environment is healthier in the long run.”
A Sign of Market Maturity
Housing economists often view this type of ranking movement as a sign of market maturity rather than decline. Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham have already experienced years of outsized growth fueled by job creation, corporate relocations, and in-migration from more expensive regions. As those markets absorb new supply and prices adjust, growth naturally evens out.
Industry observers note that stabilization can also help local residents who were previously priced out. As demand and supply come into better alignment, price growth may slow, making it easier for first-time buyers to enter the market.
Looking Ahead to 2026
While the rankings suggest a calmer year ahead, North Carolina’s housing markets are still expected to remain active. Continued population growth, a diverse economy, and relatively affordable housing compared with coastal markets continue to attract newcomers.
The key difference heading into 2026 may be tone rather than trajectory. Instead of rapid acceleration, the state’s major metros appear poised for a period of steadier, more sustainable housing activity.
To plenty of buyers, sellers, and builders, that moderation could be exactly what the market needs. As Griesinger put it, “Stability isn’t a bad thing. In real estate, it’s often the foundation for long-term success.”
