The connection between New York City politics and Florida’s real estate market has never been more apparent. As New York grapples with a contentious mayoral race, South Florida developers and real estate agents are witnessing an unprecedented surge in interest from nervous New York buyers looking to relocate to the Sunshine State.
A $100 Million Surge in Real Estate Contracts
Isaac Toledano, CEO of Miami-based BH Group, reports that his company has closed over $100 million in signed contracts from New York buyers in recent months, approximately double last year’s volume. This dramatic uptick coincides with growing uncertainty surrounding New York City’s mayoral election and the policies proposed by progressive candidate Zohran Mamdani.
According to Toledano, the election has accelerated how people make decisions about their families, finances, and future. New York residents are expressing concerns about potential changes to their quality of life, tax burden, safety, and overall business climate, prompting many to explore alternatives in Florida’s more predictable regulatory environment.
The Mamdani Effect on Real Estate Markets
Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist and state assemblyman from Queens, has proposed charging New Yorkers earning above $1 million a flat 2% tax, along with a slate of housing proposals including freezing rents on rent-stabilized apartments and massive public housing construction. These policy proposals have created what some are calling the “Mamdani Effect”, a wave of high-net-worth individuals reconsidering their long-term residence in New York City.
Real estate professionals report that since Mamdani’s primary victory, high-end buyers have begun pausing their decision-making in New York, uncertain about the potential impact of his proposed policies, while others have accelerated plans to leave the city entirely.
The response from affluent New Yorkers has been swift and decisive. Danny Hertzberg of The Jills Zeder Group in Miami received four text messages from New York City clients, plus a call and an email, on the night primary election results came in, demonstrating an immediate reaction. One client even pulled out of a New York property contract the day after the election and began house-hunting in Miami.
Florida’s Growing Appeal to New York Buyers
Florida’s advantages for relocating New Yorkers extend beyond immediate political concerns. The state offers no state income tax, which can save high earners substantial amounts annually. Between April 2020 and July 2024, Florida’s population grew by more than 8%, making it the fastest-growing state in the US during that time period, a trend accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and now reinforced by political uncertainty in New York.
In 2024, New Yorkers accounted for 24% of real estate purchases in Miami from other states, surpassing California at 13% and New Jersey at 10%. This established migration pattern has intensified in recent months as New York’s political landscape shifts.
South Florida real estate professionals are observing buyers who move quickly and decisively. Industry sources report seeing quick sales, many completed in cash and sometimes above the listing price, indicating that buyers are not speculating but betting on Miami as their next home and life hub.
What Buyers Are Seeking in Florida
The profile of New York transplants heading to Florida has evolved. About half of buyers are making permanent lifestyle moves to a warmer, more relaxed setting with built-in tax advantages, while the other half view the relocation as more strategic, a diversification play or temporary shift until conditions stabilize in New York.
High-end buyers are seeking turnkey properties with minimal maintenance requirements, easy access to the ocean and Intracoastal waterways, golf courses, outdoor sports facilities, and proximity to shopping and restaurants. Branded residences have become particularly appealing because they offer strong amenities and a reliable lifestyle that matches the expectations of buyers spending several million dollars on a home.
Popular destinations include Miami, Palm Beach, West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, and emerging markets on Florida’s west coast like Naples. West Palm Beach has earned the nickname “Wall Street South” thanks to the arrival of more than 250 financial firms since 2020, including Goldman Sachs and Ken Griffin’s Citadel. This influx of financial institutions has created a professional ecosystem that makes Florida increasingly attractive to New York’s business elite.
A Broader Pattern of Urban Flight
The current wave of New York-to-Florida migration builds on a longer-term trend. A report from the Citizens Budget Commission showed that in the five years prior to 2022, approximately 30,000 New Yorkers moved to Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties, representing a loss of $9.2 billion in revenue for New York.
Peggy Olin, CEO of OneWorld Properties, notes that wealthy buyers value stability above all else, and when politics feel unpredictable, they start exploring other options. For many investors, uncertainty about taxes, safety, and the overall business climate creates unease, prompting them to seek peace of mind elsewhere.
Not Everyone Expects Mass Exodus
Despite the headlines and anecdotal reports, some real estate professionals remain skeptical about predictions of mass migration. Industry observers note that market fundamentals in New York remain relatively strong, and high-end housing inventory has not spiked to levels that would indicate panic selling.
Jason Haber, a Compass broker operating in both New York City and Florida, believes Florida agents calling Mamdani “Realtor of the Year” will be disappointed, predicting no panic or rush to leave the city. He suggests that people will want to see how a new administration takes shape and evaluate actual policies versus campaign rhetoric before making major life decisions.
The Road Ahead
As Toledano observes, people don’t wait until after an election to make decisions about their families, finances, or future, a few calls today can turn into dozens or hundreds of buyers in the months ahead. Whether the current surge represents the beginning of a sustained exodus or a temporary spike driven by election anxiety remains to be seen.
What’s clear is that Florida’s real estate market stands to benefit from New York’s political uncertainty. South Florida offers a sense of security that some New Yorkers aren’t feeling in their home city right now, combining favorable tax policies with a strong pro-growth economy, top-tier schools and infrastructure, and a lifestyle that’s difficult to match.
For developers like Toledano, the opportunity is significant. The demand from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut buyers signals that people are ready to move their lives and capital to Florida, and if uncertainty continues to grow in New York, the migration will likely accelerate further. In an era where political decisions can drive real estate markets across state lines, the Florida-New York connection has never been stronger, or more profitable for those positioned to capitalize on it.
